The upcoming Autumn Statement provides the newly elected Labour government with an opportunity to unlock economic growth and improve societal resilience by providing support to the retail and leisure sector, according to new research from Revo.
The industry voice for the retail and leisure real estate sector, has partnered with Trajectory, an insight and foresight consultancy, and over 30 sector experts and academics, to conduct scenario planning to identify how its members can prepare for how the industry might look in 2034.
The insight, which will be published in full later this year, presents new perspectives on the possible, plausible futures for the UK retail and leisure property industry including political policy, skills and infrastructure and potential socio-cultural shifts over the next 10-years. Revo hopes that this insight will provide recommendations to its over 1,200 members to support decision making across all business interests.
Revo’s scenario planning looks at three possible futures for the UK in 2034:
- The next normal – the UK has experienced its most stable political decade for some time, with Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges benefiting town centre retail and leisure. Retail and leisure spaces in 2034 are recognised as community hubs, and real estate portfolios reflect this.
- Green, Good, Smart Places – the impacts of climate change are severe and the regulatory response decisive. Virtually every citizen and every organisation is adapting to them. In retail, there is much greater collaboration between owners and operators as both focus on mitigating climate impacts.
- Rescuing Retail and Leisure in a Polarised Britain – Another decade of stagnant growth had meant that many people feel no better off in 2034 than they did in 2024 or even 2014. With value the dominant driver of choice, and endemic price concerns, many retail environments and town centres are hollowed out – with fewer viable businesses and, in turn, creaking local infrastructure and transport.
Under each of these scenarios Revo and Trajectory, alongside industry experts and academics, have looked at the forces which may be shaping the retail and leisure real estate sector in 2034 to enable the industry to navigate the challenges each of these possible futures hold, ranging from the explosive growth of Generative AI to future proofing their assets from the risks posed by climate change.
While the detailed report will be launched later in the year, the highlights from the future insights research launched at the Revo Conference, call on the retail and leisure real estate sector to put community hubs and climate change at the heart of their planning for the future. It also calls on the Labour government to put retail and leisure at the forefront of its plans for growth outlining the opportunity it has to provide community cohesion and mitigate the risk of social decay.
The insight also looks at how AI can play a significant role in retail and leisure planning, administration, development, and consumer facing operations for even small retail and leisure schemes. In particular it calls on how the short-term focus for the sector must be on upskilling and training the existing workforce for the new economy. Meanwhile, it also encourages the industry to embrace partnership-based relationships, such as those with data and tech providers to build and scale new digital infrastructure, with house builders to diversify portfolios, government at both national and local levels for policy and co-investment and new disruptive occupiers to delight consumers.
Meanwhile, with more extreme weather including extreme heat and flooding expected over the next decade, the insight looks at ways the sector can work together to tackle these challenges. This ranges from investing in more renewable energy centres across retail and leisure schemes through to adapting to consumers healthier lifestyles and lower levels of private car use.
Vivienne King, founder and managing director of Impactful Places and Revo Board Member, said: “The messages of this future insight are intended to support the retail and leisure property community in positioning their portfolios brands and business interests to take advantage of emerging opportunities, prepare for potential risks and build resilience for in 2034. Retail and leisure can play a vital role in delivering economic growth to the UK and they should be central to the renewal and success of places by giving people a reason to visit, engage, spend and dwell.
“The insights also alert our sector to the need to embrace the challenges climate change poses by 2034, and our response must span decarbonisation, energy resilience, asset adaptation and the role of retail and leisure spaces as ‘safe shelters’. Retail environments should consider their own reliable energy generation, assets’ climate resilience and refuge during extreme weather events and develop mitigations against trading impacts.
“With the Autumn Statement just around the corner, this newly elected Labour government has to seize the opportunity the retail and leisure industry presents for societal resilience and economic growth. Retail and leisure spaces can support thriving and dynamic communities in which people want to spend time and money, as well as provide opportunities to support Labour’s ambition of creating 1.5 million homes over the next five years.
“In order to be best placed to thrive in 2034, we as an industry must speak with a single voice to encourage the government to continue to support the role bricks and mortar retail and leisure can play in helping to achieve Labour’s manifesto goals. This will then allow us all to navigate a pathway to a resilient 2034.”
